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Lessons from the writers first: the trades that went wrong, what changed afterwards, and what we'd tell someone starting out now. Below those, the reference guides, grouped by topic.
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The First and Last Hour of Trading: Why Volatility Peaks
The open is where every order held overnight arrives at once and price argues its way to a level. Let the argument finish and the range it leaves behind is worth trading.
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Relative Strength Beats Buying Cheap
Whoever held a stock up through the decline was choosing it while everything else sat on sale. That says something about demand that no valuation ratio will tell you.
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The Trade That Taught Me to Size From the Stop
Most of us can recite the formula years before we use it. It usually takes one wide stop, a size picked by feel and a loss on a setup that was read correctly to make the arithmetic stick.
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The Cheap Stock That Kept Getting Cheaper
Six times earnings, a dividend above most bonds, a recovery thesis that fits in three sentences. It is worth being precise about which year those figures described.
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Check the Broader Market Before You Buy the Stock
A clean setup on a day the index is falling hard is a good idea fighting a very large flow. It may well fall less than everything else, and falling less pays nothing.
More posts
- Correlation Is Hidden Risk: Why Five Tech Stocks Are One Bet
- Why Traders Stop Adding Indicators
- The Market Doesn't Care About Your Entry Price
- What a Year of Journaling in R Actually Shows
- Reduce Position Size During a Losing Streak
- Revenge Trading: How It Starts and How to Stop It
- Sitting in Cash Is a Position: Trading Nothing in a Choppy Market
- Cut Losers Fast, Let Winners Run: Why It Feels Wrong
- The Hammer Pattern Mistake That Costs Traders Years
- Most Trading Losses Come From Breaking Your Own Rules
- Thirty Trades Is Not a Track Record
- Why Your Trading Journal Should Record Emotions, Not Just Prices
- A Stop-Loss Order Is Not a Guaranteed Price
- Know the Earnings Date Before You Enter a Trade
- Survival Is the Real Goal in Trading
- Volume Confirms Price: Telling a Real Breakout From a False One
- Protect Your Mental Capital Like Your Trading Capital
- Trade With the Higher Timeframe Trend, Not Against It
- Simple Trading Systems Scale. Complicated Ones Break.
- Liquidity Is a Hidden Trading Cost: Spreads, Volume and Slippage
- Set a Maximum Daily Loss Limit, and Stop When You Hit It
- Averaging Down on a Losing Trade: Plan or Denial?
- Buy the Rumor, Sell the News: Why Stocks Drop on Good News
- Win Rate vs Reward-to-Risk: Why Being Wrong 60% Can Still Pay
- By the Time You Hear the News, It's Priced In
- How Much to Risk Per Trade: The Case for 0.5% to 2%
- Backtest, Then Forward Test With Small Size
- Why Position Size Matters More Than Your Entry Price
- How Taxes and Fees Compound Against Active Traders
- Define Your Exit Before Your Entry: Know Where You're Wrong
Guides by topic
The reference material the posts draw on. Each guide covers the mechanism, the trade, where the stop goes, and what makes the method fail.
Stock Trading
What stock trading involves, how orders work, what it really costs, and the honest path from your first trade to a process you can repeat. Topic overview →
- beginner
How to Trade Stocks: A Step-by-Step Guide for Beginners
The order itself takes about ten seconds. Everything that decides how it turns out happens before and after, so this runs through the steps in the order they matter.
- beginner
Stock Market for Beginners: How It Works
Most explanations define one unfamiliar term using three others. This one starts with what happens when fractions of a business change hands, and builds from there.
- beginner
Dividend Stocks: How They Work and What to Check
Getting paid to hold a slice of a business, for as long as the board keeps declaring it. The mechanics, the dates that catch people out, and the signs of a yield in trouble.
- intermediate
Penny Stocks: How They Work and Why Most Traders Lose
A $0.30 share tells you only that the company has divided itself into a large number of small pieces. The consequences worth knowing are thin liquidity, light disclosure and active promotion.
- beginner
Stop Loss vs Stop Limit: Which Order to Use
The two orders differ in one respect that decides everything: which half of the trade you are willing to leave uncertain, the price you get or whether you get out at all.
- intermediate
Trading Costs: What Zero Commission Does Not Cover
Commission was a single line on a statement, and usually the smallest one. Everything that replaced it sits inside the execution price, where your frequency decides how much it matters.
- intermediate
How to Write a Trading Plan You Will Follow
Write every line so that two people reading it would act identically. That single test explains why most plans are abandoned inside a month, and what a usable one contains.
Technical Analysis
How to read a stock chart: support and resistance, trend structure, volume, chart patterns and indicators, and what chart reading can and cannot tell you. Topic overview →
- beginner
How to Read Stock Charts: A Practical Walkthrough
A chart is a record of where buyers and sellers have already committed money. Work down from the top and it hands you a price at which your idea would be proven wrong.
- beginner
Support and Resistance: How to Find Levels That Matter
Every level is a memory of where price turned before, and each test spends some of the orders waiting there. Here is how to find the few worth drawing.
- intermediate
How to Set a Stop Loss Using ATR
A fixed percentage stop is too tight on a volatile stock and too loose on a quiet one. ATR sets the distance from what the instrument actually does, and the position size follows from it.
- intermediate
How to Scan for Hammer Candlesticks
A screener can measure a candle's proportions exactly and cannot judge location at all. Knowing which half of the job it does is what makes the output usable.
- beginner
Hammer Candle vs Hanging Man: Telling Them Apart
Nothing in the candle itself distinguishes these two. The information is entirely in what came before it, which is why naming one from a cropped chart is impossible.
- intermediate
Hammer Candle Confirmation: What to Wait For
Confirmation is not a ritual. It is the second half of the evidence, and the reason most hammers are not worth trading is that the second half never arrives.
Day Trading
An honest guide to day trading: how it works, the rules that bite small accounts, the strategies that exist, and the odds most beginners never hear about. Topic overview →
- intermediate
Day Trading Strategies With a Logic Behind Them
Most guides tell you when a setup works and go quiet about when it fails. Each of these four arrives with its rules and with the kind of session that takes it apart.
- intermediate
How to Trade an Earnings Gap
The gap itself is untradeable, because it happened while the market was shut. What is tradeable is the session that follows it, and that session has a recognisable structure.
Swing Trading
Swing trading holds a position for days or weeks to catch one move. The setups, the timeframes, the overnight risk, and how it compares with day trading. Topic overview →
Options Trading
Options from first principles: calls, puts, strikes, expiry, premium and the Greeks, plus which strategies a beginner can use and which ones to leave alone. Topic overview →
- intermediate
Options Trading Strategies: From Safest to Most Dangerous
Six options strategies ranked by the trouble they can cause. Start at the top. The bottom is where most beginners start, and that is much of why options have their reputation.
- beginner
How to Read an Options Chain
An options chain is a wall of numbers that becomes readable once you know which three columns rule out most of the rows before you have looked at anything else.
Chart Patterns
Head and shoulders, double tops, triangles, flags and cup and handle: how each one forms, how to measure a target, and what makes each one fail. Topic overview →
- intermediate
Head and Shoulders Pattern: Rules, Target and Stop
Three attempts by buyers, each weaker than the last. The right shoulder failing to reach the head is the whole signal, and everything before it is an ordinary uptrend.
- beginner
Double Top and Double Bottom: Rules and Targets
Two attempts at the same level, both rejected. Until price closes beyond the interim high between them, this and a downtrend that simply bounced twice look identical.
- intermediate
Bull Flag Pattern: How to Trade the Pause
The flag is the easy part to see and the wrong part to focus on. What matters is the move that came before it and whether the pullback stays orderly.
Indicators
How RSI, MACD, moving averages and Bollinger Bands are calculated, what each one measures, and the limitation all of them share. Topic overview →
- intermediate
RSI Indicator: How It Works and How It Is Misread
A reading of how one-sided the last fourteen bars have been. That is the whole of it, and nearly every expensive mistake with it comes from expecting more.
- intermediate
MACD Indicator: Crossovers, Histogram and Divergence
Two exponential averages and the gap between them. The arithmetic is simple; the trouble starts when traders act on every crossover a choppy market produces.
- beginner
Moving Averages: SMA vs EMA and How to Use Them
A 200-day average settles direction in about a second, and trading only that direction throws out a pile of bad trades. As an entry trigger it is much weaker.
- intermediate
VWAP vs Moving Average: Which One to Trade
VWAP and a moving average draw similar looking lines for completely different reasons. One is an intraday reference price, the other a trend filter, and swapping them quietly breaks both.
- intermediate
Bollinger Band Squeeze: Trading the Volatility Breakout
Narrow bands mean a quiet market, and quiet markets do not stay quiet. That is the whole signal, and it contains no direction at all.
- intermediate
Stochastic Oscillator vs RSI: Which to Use
RSI measures the balance of gains against losses. The stochastic measures where price closed inside its recent range. Those answers diverge exactly when it matters.
Advanced
For traders past the basics: expectancy mathematics, sizing beyond fixed fractional, backtest validation, market internals and execution quality. Topic overview →
- advanced
Trading Expectancy, Sample Size and Sizing Beyond the 1% Rule
Sizing at a flat one percent is very hard to blow an account with, which makes it a fine start and a strange stopping point. The arithmetic that succeeds it begins with whether your edge exists at all.
- advanced
Backtesting Trading Strategies Without Fooling Yourself
Every backtest flatters the strategy that produced it. The useful question is by how much, and each of the five biases here has a procedure that puts a number on it.
- advanced
Market Internals: Reading Breadth Beyond the Index
Four hundred stocks can fall while the index rises, because an index is a weighted average. Breadth data is what tells you how many names are actually taking part.
- advanced
Volume Profile: Trading Price Acceptance, Not Time
How much traded at this price is a more useful question than how much traded this hour, and it is the one that locates levels a time-based chart cannot show you.
- advanced
Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Alignment Without Paralysis
Open three charts looking for agreement and you'll always find it, because some interval always agrees with you. Give each chart one job the others cannot do.
- advanced
Correlation and Portfolio Heat: Why Six Positions Can Be One
Six positions at one percent risk each look like six independent bets. If they answer to the same driver, the book is carrying one six percent position with extra commission attached.
- intermediate
How to Calculate Correlation Between Two Stocks
Correlation is quoted constantly and calculated rarely. The arithmetic takes ten minutes on a spreadsheet, and doing it once changes how the number reads afterwards.
- intermediate
Correlation vs Beta: Which One Sizes a Position?
Beta tells you how far a stock moves when the market moves. Correlation tells you whether it moves at the same time. Sizing needs the second, and most traders reach for the first.
- advanced
Why Correlation Goes to 1 in a Market Crash
A portfolio spread across six uncorrelated ideas can discover, in a single week, that it held one. The convergence is structural, not bad luck, and it is predictable enough to size for.
- intermediate
Portfolio Correlation Checklist Before You Add Risk
Most correlation damage is done at the moment of entry, by a position that looked independent. These seven checks take a few minutes and catch the overlaps a risk report will not show.
- advanced
How to Calculate Risk of Ruin in Trading
A positive expectancy strategy can still bankrupt the account. Risk of ruin is the number that says how likely that is, and position size moves it more than anything else.
- intermediate
How Many Stocks Do You Need to Diversify?
Diversification benefit falls away faster than most lists of holdings suggest. The arithmetic is simple enough to do by hand, and it changes what a long watchlist is worth.
- advanced
How to Rebalance When Correlations Change
Correlation is measured at entry and then left alone, which is where the risk creeps in. Positions that were independent in June can be one bet by October without anything being bought.
- intermediate
How Many Losing Trades in a Row Is Normal?
A five loss run at a 50% win rate is not unusual, it is expected. Knowing the number in advance is what stops an ordinary streak being treated as evidence.
- intermediate
When to Increase Size After a Drawdown
Most drawdown rules say how to cut and go quiet on how to restore. Without a written trigger, size goes back up on confidence, which is the one input that has no bearing on whether the edge returned.
- intermediate
Set Risk Per Trade From Your Drawdown Limit
The 1% rule is a reasonable default and it is not derived from anything about you. Running the arithmetic in reverse gives a number that is, and it is usually smaller.
- intermediate
Fixed Fractional vs Fixed Dollar Position Sizing
A flat cash risk is easier to work with and gets more dangerous exactly as the account shrinks. The percentage version fixes that, and gives up something in exchange.
- advanced
Implied Volatility and Skew: Why Puts Cost More Than Calls
A put and a call the same distance from the price rarely cost the same. That gap is the market pricing crash risk, and most option buyers never look at it.
Fundamental Analysis
P/E, margins, ROIC, free cash flow and debt ratios: what each one measures, how each can be flattered, and how to separate a cheap stock from a broken one. Topic overview →
- intermediate
Key Stock Metrics: What Each One Measures and Hides
Roughly a dozen figures account for most of what matters about a company, and knowing what each one omits proves more useful than knowing how it is calculated.
- advanced
Value Traps: Why Cheap Stocks Keep Getting Cheaper
Every multiple is calculated against earnings already reported, so a company in structural decline screens cheap the whole way down. Falling margins alongside falling revenue is the clearest warning available.
- intermediate
Insider Buying vs Selling: Which Signal Matters
A sale can be explained by tax, diversification or a schedule arranged eighteen months earlier. A purchase has one explanation, and that asymmetry is where the usable signal sits.
Candlestick Patterns
Every pattern with its own chart, identification rules, the order flow behind it, and where the stop goes. Topic overview →
- bullish
Hammer Candlestick Pattern: How to Spot and Trade It
That long tail marks a price where buyers absorbed everything the sellers had. The people who sold into those lows are trapped, and their buying back is the fuel.
- bullish
Bullish Engulfing Pattern: Rules, Psychology and Entries
Control of the market changed hands in one session, and the shorts who were comfortable the day before are now covering into it. The confirmation is built into the candle.
- neutral
Doji Candlestick: What It Means and How to Trade It
Open and close land at the same price, so the body shrinks to a line. Dragonfly and gravestone are the two worth acting on; a short-shadowed one is usually a slow day.
- bearish
Shooting Star Candlestick: A Bearish Reversal Signal
Buyers drove price up all session and handed back every point by the close. The crowd that bought near the high is now holding losses, and their stops sit just below.
- bullish
Inverted Hammer: A Weaker Bullish Reversal
Sellers were present all session and still could not close price at the lows. That is a smaller claim than a hammer makes, which is why this pattern needs more from its confirmation.
- bullish
Morning Star: A Three Candle Bullish Reversal
The middle candle is the handover. Sellers lose control without buyers yet taking it, and the third session answers the question the second one left open.
- bearish
Bearish Engulfing Pattern: Rules, Psychology and Stops
By the close, every long opened in the previous session is underwater and the stops beneath it are already firing. That forced selling is why these follow through fast.
- bearish
Hanging Man Candlestick: The Warning at the Top
In a healthy uptrend, dips stay shallow. A deep intraday sell-off that gets bought back means supply has arrived in size for the first time, and that is new information.
- neutral
Spinning Top Candlestick: What Indecision Really Means
Mark the high and the low; those are your decision levels now. Trends pause and continue far more often than they pause and turn, so wait for a close beyond one of them.
How this is written
Everything here is drafted with AI assistance and checked by a person before it goes live, and the note at the top of each page names who checked it. How we use AI sets out what that review covers. The posts are the lessons and the arguments. The guides are the reference material, and every post links to the ones it draws on.